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Investing.com -- 惠誉评级周五宣布，确认埃及长期外币发行人违约评级为\"B\"，展望稳定。

该评级得到埃及相对较大的经济体量、强劲的GDP增长潜力以及来自双边和多边合作伙伴的有力支持。这些优势与疲弱的公共财政、高额债务利息成本、巨大的外部融资需求、波动的商业融资流、高通胀以及地缘风险形成平衡。

埃及的国际总储备在2025年前九个月增加了21亿美元，达到470亿美元。埃及中央银行的净外国资产头寸在8月份为107亿美元，今年基本保持稳定。银行业的净外国资产头寸在2025年前八个月改善了137亿美元。

惠誉预测，到2027财年末，国际总储备将达到4.2个月的当前外部支付，相比2025财年末的4.4个月有所下降，接近\"B\"级中值的4.3个月。

经常账户赤字预计将在2027财年缩小至GDP的2.8%，此前在2025财年已改善1.2个百分点至GDP的4.2%。这一改善主要由汇款的强劲增长（2025财年增长66%）和旅游收入驱动，抵消了贸易赤字的扩大。

外国直接投资预计将在2026-2027财年增加至平均155亿美元（占GDP的3.4%），高于2025财年的132亿美元，部分原因是来自海湾合作委员会国家的新房地产投资。

自2024年3月以来，官方和平行汇率一直保持统一，没有报告显著差异。虽然外汇需求措施可能导致汇率波动性较低，但惠誉认为这并未导致显著的货币错配。

地缘风险仍然高企，苏伊士运河收入自2023财年以来下降59%，2025财年为36亿美元。惠誉预计这一数字将在2027财年缓慢恢复至55亿美元。旅游收入保持韧性，2025财年增长16%。

惠誉预测，埃及政府总赤字将在2026财年保持在GDP的7.5%不变，强劲的收入和受控的资本支出抵消了上升的债务利息成本。预计赤字将在2027财年缩小至GDP的6.5%，仍是\"B\"级中值3%的两倍多。

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金融趣闻

惠誉确认埃及信用评级为"B"，前景稳定